Thailand’s Response to the 12.5% U.S. Section 301 and the request for Further Exemptions
Introduction
On July 23, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (“USTR”) issued its final action under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 in the Forced Labor Investigation, covering approximately 60 trading partners. Thailand was placed in the higher 12.5% tariff band, effective July 24, 2026, alongside Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore. Thailand received this rate because the United States found it had not adopted, committed to, or partially implemented a prohibition on the import of goods produced with forced labor, unlike a smaller group of trading partners assigned a 10% rate.
A separate and still-ongoing USTR proceeding, the Excess Capacity Investigation, covers 16 trading partners, including Thailand, and examines alleged structural excess capacity in manufacturing sectors. This investigation has not concluded and no tariff has yet been imposed under it. If the United States ultimately takes action on this second track as well, Thai exporters could face a further tariff, with some commentators estimating a combined exposure of up to 25% across both proceedings.
Domestically, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has directed six ministries and the Royal Thai Police to address both issues. Externally, the Ministry of Commerce (“MOC”) continues to negotiate an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (“ART”) with the United States and has requested exemptions for a further 78 tariff lines, while stating that its negotiating position will not compromise the interests of farmers, the public, or businesses.
Key Concerns and Thailand’s Response
Following the Cabinet meeting of July 27, 2026, the Cabinet Secretariat issued an urgent instruction to the Ministries of Finance, Foreign Affairs, Agriculture and Cooperatives, Commerce, Labor, and Industry, and to the Commissioner-General of the Royal Thai Police. Each agency has been directed to prepare supporting data and response measures, identify the units responsible for each task, and set clear implementation timeframes.
1. Forced Labor
The United States has emphasized the need for stronger measures against goods produced with forced labor, including enhanced Human Rights Due Diligence (“HRDD”) and supply-chain traceability. The Ministry of Labor leads this response, together with the Ministries of Commerce and Industry. Their tasks are to accelerate enforcement of existing laws and regulations, compile lists of at-risk products and industries, and develop origin-certification and traceability systems covering the full production chain, so that Thailand can substantiate its position in discussions with the United States and other trading partners.
Thailand does not yet have directly enforceable legislation on this point. Thailand’s Ministry of Justice has been developing a draft Act on the Promotion of Responsible Business Conduct (also referred to as the mandatory Human Rights and Environmental Due Diligence, or “HRDD/mHREDD,” bill) since 2025, intended to align with the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. The bill remains under development, and its legislative timeline, including submission to Parliament, has not been firmly fixed as of this update. Businesses should not wait for enactment before building supply-chain records.
2. Structural Excess Capacity
This issue is the subject of the separate, ongoing USTR Excess Capacity Investigation described above. It did not itself determine Thailand’s placement in the 12.5% forced-labor tariff band, though it could result in additional measures. The MOC leads Thailand’s response, with the Ministries of Industry, Agriculture and Cooperatives, and Finance. The agencies must compile risk lists at the product and industry level, integrating data on production capacity, inventory levels, government subsidies, price structures, export volumes, and country of origin. They must also investigate false origin claims and the use of Thailand as a trans-shipment point to evade trade measures imposed by importing countries.
Government support policy is also shifting direction. Future assistance is intended to target productivity, cost reduction, technology adoption, value addition, and greater use of local content. Subsidies that expand production capacity or increase supply beyond market demand are to be avoided, as they could themselves be cited as evidence of excess capacity. In discussions with USTR, Thailand has represented that domestic capacity utilization in the targeted industries generally runs between 70% and 90%, with no industry operating below 60%.
Exposure and Exemptions Secured
Thailand has obtained exemptions for 2,120 tariff lines under Annex II, Part A, representing approximately 61.6% of tariff lines and US$56.2 billion in exports, or roughly half the value of Thai goods exported to the United States. This is a substantial increase from the 471 items exempted under an earlier, preliminary list. Goods already subject to duties under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (for example, automobiles, steel, aluminum, and copper) are not subject to duplicate Section 301 duties. This overlap covers roughly US$7 billion of the remaining non-exempt goods.
Taking both the exemption list and the Section 232 overlap into account, the MOC estimates that approximately 28% of Thai exports to the United States remain exposed to the additional 12.5% tariff. Leading non-exempt industrial products include car and truck tires, machinery, cameras, air conditioners, and vehicle wheels and rims. Products such as jewelry, milled rice, pet food, canned tuna, and processed shrimp likewise remain outside the current exemption list and are among the items for which Thailand is now seeking relief (see below).
Solar cells and modules face particularly high cumulative exposure. In addition to the Section 301 tariff, U.S. antidumping duties on Thai-origin solar cells have been assessed at rates of up to approximately 203%, and countervailing duties at rates of up to approximately 800%, reflecting separate U.S. Commerce Department determinations on dumping and subsidization. Combined with the Section 301 tariff, total cumulative duties on affected solar shipments can substantially exceed 800%, and in the highest cases run well over 1,000%.
The Request for 78 Additional Tariff Lines
The MOC has submitted a proposal covering seven product groups and 78 tariff lines, which are agriculture and food security, consumer and household goods, medical and public-health products, electronics and semiconductors, vehicles and parts, machinery components and industrial equipment, and handicrafts and value-added products. Illustrative items include rice and Thai hom mali (jasmine) rice, maize, coconuts, orchids, cassava and cassava starch products, and fishery products, alongside jewelry, dog and cat food, milled rice, medical rubber gloves, tuna, processed bonito, fresh and cooked shrimp, and sauces and seasonings. The Commerce Ministry has separately referenced a further proposal covering 13 additional items, though it has not clarified whether these form part of the 78-line request or a distinct submission.
Thailand’s negotiating position is subject to three limits. It will not cross the interests of farmers, the interests of the public, or the rights of businesses. Thailand has indicated it is prepared for technical-level ART talks and is awaiting a determination from USTR, after which the MOC has suggested negotiations could conclude within a matter of weeks.
Key Takeaways
- Solar cells are a particular outlier, combined Section 301, antidumping, and countervailing duties can push cumulative exposure well above 800%, in some cases exceeding 1,000%.
- The 12.5% tariff under Section 301 currently in effect stems from the Forced Labor Investigation only. The separate Excess Capacity Investigation remains open and could result in an additional tariff if concluded against Thailand.
- After accounting for the Annex II exemption list and the Section 232 overlap, approximately 28% of Thai exports to the United States remain exposed to the 12.5% tariff.
- Six ministries and the Royal Thai Police have been directed to address forced labor and excess capacity concerns, with traceability and origin certification central to the response.
- A mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence bill is under development by the Ministry of Justice, and its legislative timeline is not yet fixed. Businesses should not wait for enactment before building supply-chain records.
- A request for 78 further exemption lines across seven product groups remains pending, and technical-level ART talks await a USTR determination.
Author: Panisa Suwanmatajarn, Managing Partner.
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