Thailand’s Proposed VAT Increase: Legal and Policy Overview

Thailand is currently undertaking a comprehensive review of its long-term fiscal policy in response to rising public expenditure, persistent budget deficits, and the imperative to secure sustainable government revenue. For fiscal year B.E. 2569 (2026), the Ministry of Finance is preparing a broader tax structure reform plan to be submitted to the incoming government. A key element under consideration is a potential adjustment to the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate.

Background of Thailand’s VAT System

Thailand’s current VAT framework originated as an economic relief measure. In B.E. 2542 (1999), the government issued the Royal Decree Issued under the Revenue Code on the Reduction of the Value Added Tax Rate (No. 353) B.E. 2542 (1999), reducing the VAT rate from the statutory rate of 10% to 7% (comprising 6.3% VAT and 0.7% local tax). This measure was introduced during the Asian financial crisis, commonly referred to in Thailand as the “Tom Yum Kung” crisis.

Although originally intended as a temporary measure, the reduced VAT rate of 7% has been continuously extended through successive Royal Decrees for more than two decades and has remained a core feature of Thailand’s VAT system.

In recent years, the Ministry of Finance has expressed concern that the continued application of the reduced VAT rate may prove inadequate to meet Thailand’s future fiscal obligations, including expenditures related to infrastructure development, social welfare programs, and public debt servicing. Additionally, Thailand’s VAT rate remains comparatively low relative to those of many other jurisdictions.

The Ministry of Finance’s Proposed VAT Plan

Based on current policy discussions, the Ministry of Finance is considering a phased adjustment of the VAT rate rather than an immediate increase. The indicative timeline under consideration includes:

• An increase in the VAT rate from 7% to 8.5% by 2028; and
• A further increase to 10% by 2030.

Support Measures for Vulnerable Groups

To mitigate the potential social impact of a VAT increase, the Ministry of Finance has indicated that a portion of the additional revenue would be allocated to support vulnerable groups and alleviate cost-of-living pressures. By way of illustration, if VAT revenue were to increase by THB 100 billion, approximately THB 20 billion could be allocated to supplementary benefits under the State Welfare Card scheme, with the remaining amount applied to other cost-of-living support measures. These initiatives are intended to cushion the impact on low-income households in the event that a VAT adjustment is implemented.

Impacted Stakeholders and Economic Sectors

Any adjustment to Thailand’s VAT rate would have wide-ranging implications across multiple stakeholder groups and economic sectors.

Consumers – VAT is a consumption tax that is generally passed on to end consumers through higher prices for goods and services. Households, particularly low-income and fixed-income groups, are likely to experience the immediate impact through increased living costs. While certain essential goods and services may be zero-rated or exempt, they could still be indirectly affected through higher input costs.

Businesses and Operators – VAT-registered businesses would face higher output VAT obligations, which may affect pricing strategies, cash flow management, and compliance costs. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in particular, may experience greater pressure if competitive constraints prevent them from fully passing on increased VAT to customers. Certain sectors, such as retail, hospitality, logistics, and consumer services, are expected to be more sensitive to VAT changes due to price elasticity and consumer behavior.

Government and Public Finance – For the government, a VAT increase would strengthen revenue collection and reduce reliance on borrowing. According to policy discussions led by the Ministry of Finance, any adjustment would be accompanied by targeted support measures for vulnerable groups to mitigate social impacts and maintain economic stability.

Current Status

At present, no legislative amendment or binding decision has been enacted. The VAT rate remains at 7% under the Royal Decree Issued under the Revenue Code on the Reduction of the Value Added Tax Rate (No. 799) B.E. 2568 (2025), which extends the reduced VAT rate until 30 September B.E. 2569 (2026). Any adjustment to the VAT rate will be conditional upon prevailing economic conditions. Accordingly, all impacted stakeholders and economic sectors should closely monitor ongoing developments to ensure timely awareness and compliance with any changes.

Conclusion

Thailand’s potential VAT reform reflects broader efforts to strengthen fiscal sustainability and secure long-term public revenue. While the reduced VAT rate remains in force and no legislative amendment has yet been enacted, policy discussions indicate a possible phased increase over the medium to long term. Any adjustment will depend on economic conditions and is likely to be implemented alongside mitigating measures to address social and economic impacts. In this context, businesses, taxpayers, and other affected sectors should closely monitor regulatory developments and assess potential implications for pricing, compliance obligations, and overall cost structures should the proposed reform proceed.

Author: Panisa Suwanmatajarn, Managing Partner.

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