Update on Thailand–United States Tariff Negotiations and the New 15% Global Import Tariff

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Update on Thailand–United States Tariff Negotiations and the New 15% Global Import Tariff

Update on Thailand–United States Tariff Negotiations

On 19 February 2026, the Minister of Commerce provided an update on Thailand’s ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States, confirming that discussions remain underway despite several substantive issues on which the parties continue to hold differing positions.

Earlier, on 12 February 2026, Director-General-level consultations were convened to discuss the proposed timeline and structural framework of the contemplated agreement. Both sides reaffirmed their shared objective of concluding the negotiations in a timely and orderly manner. The United States indicated that it would not object to Thailand submitting, in advance, a proposed list of goods for exemption from the Reciprocal Tariff (“RT”) under Annex 3. However, approval of any such exemptions will ultimately depend on the overall balance and final outcome of the negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce has expressed its intention to conclude the negotiations by July 2026.

Thailand’s Tariff Position within ASEAN and Structural Parity under the RT Regime

Thailand currently maintains a tariff position equivalent to that of other ASEAN Member States under the RT framework and is therefore not at a structural disadvantage from a comparative tariff perspective.

Eligibility for exemptions under Annex 3 will depend on the specific terms secured through each country’s bilateral negotiations with the United States, as the United States applies differentiated conditions on a case-by-case basis. Importantly, any preferential treatment granted under Annex 3 does not take effect automatically upon the conclusion of negotiations. Rather, it remains subject to compliance with applicable domestic legal processes and formal procedural requirements.

By way of illustration, in the case of Malaysia, tariff exemptions become operative only after sixty (60) days have elapsed from the date on which the relevant agreement enters into force under Malaysia’s domestic law, together with formal notification to the United States. During this interim period, goods listed under Annex 3 remain subject to the RT in the ordinary course until all requisite procedures have been completed and the exemption becomes fully effective.

U.S. Supreme Court Ruling on Presidential Authority under IEEPA

On 20 February 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States, by a 6–3 majority, affirmed a lower court ruling that the U.S. President’s reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) as authority to impose the RT was unlawful. The Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the imposition of tariffs, as such authority is constitutionally vested in Congress.

This decision clarified the constitutional allocation of tariff authority and directly affected the legal basis underpinning the previously imposed RT measures.

Imposition of a Global Tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974

Following the Supreme Court’s ruling, on 21 February 2026, the U.S. President announced the immediate imposition of a 15% global import tariff pursuant to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The Minister of Commerce confirmed that Thailand is not required to reopen or renegotiate its ongoing discussions in light of this measure, as the tariff rate has been unilaterally determined by the United States. Certain categories of goods remain exempt, and the overall impact has not been assessed as materially adverse.

In the short term, Thailand may derive relative benefits from this development. The previously applicable tariff rate of 19% on Thai goods has been reduced to 15%, resulting in immediate cost savings for Thai exporters. Key sectors expected to benefit include rubber products, frozen seafood, and electronic components—each representing significant export categories to the United States market.

Ongoing Monitoring and the 150-Day Statutory Review Period

Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Thai Government will continue to monitor the implementation and legal trajectory of the measure, particularly in light of the 150-day period prescribed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. During this statutory period, the United States retains the authority to modify, extend, or terminate the measure.

Benefits and Risks Arising from the U.S. Tariff Measures

Short-Term Benefits


The reduction of the import tariff rate from 19% to 15% enhances the price competitiveness of Thai goods in the United States market and provides immediate cost relief to Thai exporters.

No Requirement for Renegotiation


As the United States has unilaterally determined the applicable tariff rate and granted exemptions for certain categories of goods, Thailand is not required to reopen negotiations, thereby reducing the administrative and diplomatic burden associated with prolonged discussions.

Opportunity for Market Expansion


Thai exporters may capitalize on the current tariff environment by accelerating exports during this period of reduced rates, ahead of any potential regulatory changes.

Long-Term Risks


If the United States increases tariff rates or introduces additional trade measures following the statutory review period, Thailand may face renewed competitive pressure. It is therefore prudent to prepare contingency strategies, including diversification of export destinations, particularly within ASEAN and the European market.

Conclusion

Recent developments in U.S. tariff policy reflect continued legal and policy volatility—from the Supreme Court’s clarification of presidential authority under IEEPA to the subsequent imposition of a 15% global import tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

While Thailand is not required to renegotiate its position and stands to benefit in the short term from the reduced tariff rate, the uncertainty inherent in the 150-day statutory framework remains a material risk factor. Accordingly, the Thai Government should closely monitor further developments in U.S. trade policy, while private sector stakeholders strategically leverage the current window of opportunity to expand exports, enhance product value, and diversify market exposure in order to strengthen Thailand’s long-term trade resilience.

Author: Panisa Suwanmatajarn, Managing Partner.

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