U.S. Expands Tariff Exemptions on Key Agricultural Products: Implications for Global Trade

On 14 November 2025, the U.S. government issued an executive order entitled “Modifying the Scope of the Reciprocal Tariff with Respect to Certain Agricultural Products” (the “Executive Order“), which updates and expands the exemptions previously provided under the reciprocal tariff regime established on 2 April 2025.

The issuance of this Executive Order follows mounting political pressure arising from nationwide increases in consumer prices for supermarket goods. Over the past year, distributors have raised prices on beef, coffee, chocolate, and other common food products, primarily attributable to existing tariff measures.

On 17 November 2025, a White House spokesperson reiterated the U.S. government’s commitment to its tariff policy, emphasizing that it has generated trillions of dollars in investment and employment within the United States and facilitated unprecedented trade agreements that have benefited U.S. workers, industries, and farmers.

Exempted Products

The Executive Order introduces new exemptions covering a wide range of agricultural products—particularly items that the United States either cannot produce domestically or cannot produce in sufficient quantities. These include bananas, coffee, tomatoes, avocados, coconuts, oranges, pineapples, black tea, green tea, and spices such as cinnamon and nutmeg.

Although the tariff relief is intended to ease pressures on retail food prices, experts caution that global supply constraints may continue to drive costs upward. Coffee and beef remain particularly vulnerable given tight global supply conditions and the cumulative impact of the existing tariff framework.

Analysis of Key Exempted Products

Beef: The exemption for beef follows months of sharp price increases, partly driven by prior tariff policies. A severe supply squeeze—exacerbated by high tariffs on major suppliers and historically low U.S. cattle inventories—has pushed supermarket beef prices up by 12–18%.

Coffee: Coffee has emerged as one of the most visible examples of the unintended effects of tariff policy. The 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, one of the United States’ top three suppliers, has significantly raised costs throughout the supply chain. As the U.S. does not cultivate its own coffee beans, businesses have had limited options to mitigate these cost increases.

Cocoa: Cocoa prices have faced similar upward pressure. While futures prices have softened slightly, they remain more than double pre-pandemic levels (approximately USD 5,300 per metric ton), driven by tariff measures and poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.

Stakeholders Affected by the Modified Reciprocal Tariffs

The Executive Order modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs on key agricultural products affects multiple stakeholders across the global supply chain. The primary groups include:

1. Importers, Distributors, and Retailers

• U.S. businesses importing and distributing beef, coffee, cocoa, and other exempted products will experience changes in cost structures due to revised tariffs.
• Retailers will benefit from reduced costs, potentially moderating consumer prices; however, global supply constraints may continue to impact pricing.

2. Foreign Exporters and Producers

• Exporters, including Thai agricultural and food companies, will gain new market opportunities under the revised exemptions.
• Producers in key exporting countries (e.g., Brazil for coffee, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana for cocoa) will need to adjust production, harvesting, and logistics to meet changing U.S. demand.

3. Investors and Policy Makers

• Investors in agricultural commodities and related industries may adjust their strategies in response to tariff changes and market signals.
• Trade regulators and government agencies will oversee compliance with the modified tariff framework to ensure proper implementation and facilitate smooth trade flows.

Conclusion

The Executive Order modifying reciprocal tariffs on key agricultural products represents a significant development for international trade and market dynamics. By expanding exemptions for products such as beef, coffee, cocoa, and various fruits and spices, the policy aims to alleviate retail food price pressures while responding to political and economic concerns domestically. Although the relief provides opportunities for exporters—particularly within Thailand’s agricultural and food sectors—global supply constraints and market volatility will continue to impact prices. Stakeholders across the supply chain, including importers, distributors, exporters, producers, investors, and policy makers, must monitor regulatory updates closely, adjust strategies accordingly, and ensure compliance to capitalize on emerging opportunities under the revised tariff framework.

Author: Panisa Suwanmatajarn, Managing Partner.

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