The Ripple Effect EP. 9: Navigating Tariffs and Technology Controls: Thailand’s Strategic Response to U.S. Trade Pressures

Thailand is currently navigating a rapidly evolving trade landscape marked by two significant challenges. Firstly, the United States set to increase tariffs on selected Thai exports to 36%, effective on August 1, 2025. Secondly, the U.S. Department of Commerce is reportedly considering stricter export controls on high-performance NVIDIA AI chips destined for particular countries, including Thailand, citing concerns about potential transshipment to China. These developments could have substantial implications for Thailand’s trade relations and regulatory compliance framework.

In response, the Thai government has implemented swift and strategic measures, including initiating diplomatic engagements with U.S. counterparts, implementing targeted investment promotion strategies, and enhancing oversight of advanced technologies to ensure compliance with international trade regulations.

Trade Negotiations and Economic Safeguards

The Finance Minister has proposed offering tariff exemptions on selected U.S. imports as leverage to negotiate the reduction of retaliatory tariffs from 36% to levels comparable to those imposed on Vietnam and Indonesia—approximately 20%.

1. Selective Market Opening

Thailand is prepared to reduce tariffs—potentially to 0%—on U.S. goods that the country does not produce or cannot produce in sufficient quantities, such as specific agricultural or industrial products. However, this market access must not conflict with Thailand’s commitments under existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Thai agricultural producers will remain protected under these arrangements.

2. Promoting Thai Investment in the United States

The U.S. seeks to boost domestic manufacturing and exports, while Thailand aims to increase investment in processed agriculture and energy sectors. On the other hand, the U.S. currently maintains an energy surplus, offering natural gas at significantly reduced prices (2–3 USD per million BTU compared to the market price of 10–11 USD) to Thailand.

3. Preventing Origin Fraud and Promoting Local Content

The U.S. has proposed stricter local content requirements, potentially increasing from 40% to 60–70%, to prevent the misuse of trade privileges. However, Thai business operators view this as an opportunity to boost domestic production and strengthen the local supply chain. By relying more on local content, Thailand can create opportunities for its manufacturers to enhance their production capabilities and become more competitive in global markets.

Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Support Measures

To mitigate the impact on Thai SMEs and the agricultural sector, the government plans to allocate 200 billion THB in soft loans through state-owned banks, with interest rates as low as 0.01%. This initiative will support investment, employment, inventory management, and other operational costs. The government will subsidize the standard 2% interest rate as part of its comprehensive business relief measures.

Board of Investment (BOI) Measures to Retain Investment

Following the U.S. government’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs over the past two months, Thailand’s BOI has consulted with both domestic and foreign investors and introduced a comprehensive policy package. This initiative addresses two primary objectives:

1. Enhancing Thai Business Competitiveness and Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains

a. SME Efficiency Support: Thai SMEs are encouraged to invest in upgrades including machinery modernization, automation, energy efficiency improvements, and sustainable practices. Tax incentives have been enhanced from a 3-year exemption at 50% of investment value to a 5-year exemption at 100%.

b. Local Content Promotion: Companies in the electric vehicle (EV) and electronics sectors that meet specific local content requirements and obtain “Made in Thailand” certification will receive an additional 2-year corporate income tax reduction of 50%.

2. Mitigating Risks from U.S. Trade Measures and Regulating Specific Sectors

a. Enhanced Production Process Requirements: For sensitive industries (e.g., automotive parts, electronics, metals), the BOI now mandates clearly defined transformation of raw materials, requiring a change in customs tariff classification of at least four digits to ensure value-added production within Thailand.

b. Investment Regulation in High-Risk or Oversupplied Sectors: The BOI will discontinue promotion of specific low-technology or oversupplied industries (e.g., solar panels, furniture, long steel products). Certain sectors must maintain majority Thai ownership unless located in designated economic zones.

c. Foreign Labor Regulation Adjustments: Manufacturing facilities employing over 100 staffs must maintain a workforce that is at least 70% Thai nationals to ensure local employment benefits.

These incentives aim to attract foreign manufacturers to Thailand, strengthen supply chain integrity, and enhance the country’s overall economic resilience.

U.S. AI Chip Export Controls and Regional Implications

The U.S. has intensified export controls on advanced AI chips to prevent potential rerouting to China—a measure that could disrupt regional digital infrastructure projects. However, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has clarified that such restrictions are unlikely to impact legitimate initiatives, including Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) has planned to set up data center in Thailand.

Current U.S. measures primarily target transshipment risks rather than restricting local deployment. Nevertheless, uncertainties persist, particularly regarding the scope and enforcement of these controls. For instance, U.S. regulations prohibit foreign data centers from exceeding the processing capacity of their American counterparts, and chipmaker NVIDIA is already prioritizing U.S.-based clients due to supply constraints.

Given these challenges, Thailand must continue monitoring U.S. policy developments closely while accelerating digital infrastructure upgrades and ensuring regulatory transparency.

Conclusion: A Unified and Strategic Path Forward

Thailand’s evolving role in global trade necessitates, a comprehensive strategy to address rising tariffs, technological scrutiny and pragmatic diplomatic approach and reinforcing investor confidence through proactive BOI measures and credible technology governance, Thailand can establish itself as a trustworthy and resilient economic partner.

The path forward requires coherence between domestic policy, international engagement, and innovation readiness, ensuring that Thailand not only weathers current economic headwinds but emerges stronger in the global economic arena.

Author: Panisa Suwanmatajarn, Managing Partner.

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